RTP
NFL Intelligence Control Center
Brain v8 · Self-Describing Worker · Autonomous Pipelines
Pages Service BindingNo browser Bearer key · private Worker-to-Worker hop
RTP FOOTBALL OPERATIONS

One brain. One truth. One-click pipelines.

The Worker owns the football logic. The UI reads the Worker contract and automatically exposes new capabilities after each deploy.

WorkerUNKNOWN
AutopilotUNKNOWNCloudflare Queue
ContractWorker → UI
Model MathMutation guard
READINESS

System gates

Sync the Worker to load readiness gates.
ACTIVE RUN

Autonomous pipeline

No active pipeline.
DAILY OPERATIONS · V2

Incremental Daily Ingest

Refresh only what changed. Games stay live; certified final stats, advanced stats, rosters and injuries reuse fresh D1 truth until their fingerprint or TTL requires a provider call.

NOT CHECKED

Freshness-aware pipeline

Fast-safe policy: games refresh every run; final stat + advanced feeds reuse the same final-set fingerprint for 6h; rosters refresh stale week teams after 72h; injuries refresh after 20m; completed play receipts are never re-fetched. Provider cooldown remains intact.
Preflight resultNOT CHECKED
Tap CHECK WHAT CHANGED. The reuse/refresh plan will appear here immediately.
PIPELINE MAP

Daily phases

Manifest not loaded.
Final Gamescurrent week fingerprint
Week Teamsroster scope
Provider Refresh Stepsbefore run
FRESHNESS PLAN

Reuse vs refresh

Run CHECK WHAT CHANGED to see which phases can reuse D1 truth.
Full freshness preflight
No preflight loaded.
LIVE PROGRESS

Current run

IDLE
No daily run started.
LIVE GAME COCKPIT

Matchup Center

One game, one coherent football packet. All numbers come from the Worker; the browser does not recalculate the model.

NOT LOADED
AWAY
VS
HOME
Coherence gate: team truth + injury context + model quality are displayed before the projection is treated as ready. Missing inputs remain visible—no false green.
AWAYWin —
RTP PROJECTED SCOREConfidence —
HOMEWin —
Model Spreadhome margin
Model Totalprojected points
Market Spreadhome line
Market Totalbook total
PREGAME READINESS

Truth gates

UNKNOWN
Load a matchup to inspect its dependencies.
MODEL QUALITY

Reliability

Confidence
Home missing
Away missing
No quality packet loaded.
TEAM INTELLIGENCE

Away offense ↔ Home defense

No team packet loaded.
TEAM INTELLIGENCE

Home offense ↔ Away defense

No team packet loaded.
TRENCHES

OL ↔ DL matchup

WORKER INPUT
AWAY OLpressure allowedsack allowedrun efficiency
×
HOME DLpressure generatedsack conversionrun disruption
No trench packet loaded.
AVAILABILITY

Injuries + weather

Away injuries

Home injuries

Weather not loaded.
DECISION LAYER

Market comparison

Run the matchup to compare model vs. market.
PLAYERS

Player projection cache

NOT LOADED
Load cached player projections or use the Player/Props endpoints from the Worker manifest.
Full Worker matchup packet / provenance
No matchup packet loaded.
LAB

Resimulation Station

Test matchup behavior and calibration candidates without replacing the engine’s core model.

TOTALS CORE V2 · LOCKED CANDIDATE

2025 Full-Season Totals Resimulation

NOT CHECKED

One click runs the corrected totals math chronologically from strict pre-kickoff receipts. DCR uses its true conversion-rate scale, EPA and every additive feature are centered on that week’s leakage-safe pregame population, and the scoring level uses only prior completed games with shrinkage. Legacy moneyline/spread outputs remain unchanged. The old +16 overlay is excluded, and promotion remains blocked until both locked accuracy and historical market-profitability evidence pass.

ExecutionQUEUE OWNEDbrowser may close
Provider CallsZEROD1 only
Formula FitNONEpregame centers only
HoldoutW13–W18locked validation
Phase 5A preflight has not been run yet.
PHASE 5E V3 · IMMUTABLE MARKET TRUTH

Historical Core Markets KV + Clean Totals Audit

NOT CHECKED

Preflight checks immutable KV before any provider action. When all snapshots are cached, this lane rebuilds separate v3 D1 receipts and the audit with zero Odds API calls or credits; only genuinely missing snapshots can reach the historical provider. Requests remain locked to moneyline (h2h), spread and total at T−6h and T−5m. The clean audit excludes same-week outcomes, gives each bookmaker one consensus-line vote, settles only an actual bookmaker price, and explains every uncovered predicted game. Market data never enters totals math, and no result promotes automatically.

MarketsML · SPREAD · TOTALnothing else
DecisionT−6 HOURSexecutable price
CloseT−5 MINCLV benchmark
StorageKV IMMUTABLEcache-first reruns
Phase 5E historical market preflight has not been run yet.
PHASE 5F · TOTALS SIGNAL TRUTH

Component Attribution + Signal Qualification

NOT CHECKED

Runs a read-only truth test over the immutable Phase 5A replay and clean Phase 5E market audit. It measures model-vs-market accuracy, edge discrimination, probability calibration, cold-start bets, and each totals stage. It makes zero provider calls, spends zero Odds API credits, writes nothing, and cannot promote totals.

Provider Cost0 CREDITSD1 evidence only
Model MutationNONEweights stay frozen
ConfirmationOBSERVEDnot relabeled fresh OOS
PromotionFAIL CLOSEDtruth gates required
Phase 5F signal truth has not been run yet.
PHASE 5G · BOUNDED TOTALS CANDIDATE

De-duplicated Projection + Probability Repair

NOT CHECKED

Evaluates one predeclared read-only totals candidate built directly from the Phase 5F diagnosis. Correlated EPA/YPP/PPD/DCR/red-zone inputs vote through one robust efficiency block instead of stacking across multiple stages; pace owns one volume adjustment; penalties own one discipline term. The old chaos mean shift, secondary total adjustment, duplicate DCR/pace paths, and legacy total calibration are excluded. Candidate probability comes from strictly earlier-week candidate residuals, and zero-history games are projected but cannot become bets. 2025 outcomes are evaluation-only and never fit candidate coefficients or thresholds.

ProjectionONE OWNER / STATduplicate paths removed
Cold StartABSTAINprojection allowed, bet blocked
ProbabilityPRIOR-WEEK RESIDUALsingle authority
ProductionUNCHANGEDresearch only
Phase 5G bounded totals candidate has not been run yet.
PHASE 5H · DRIVE × PPD MATCHUP CANDIDATE

Strict-Prior Scoring Identity Model

NOT CHECKED

Rebuilds the totals mean from the football scoring identity: expected drives × matchup points per drive. Each offense is paired symmetrically with the opponent defense using certified D1 team-game history from strictly earlier weeks. The existing four-game live-bridge reliability budget shrinks small samples toward the weekly league center. YPP, third-down rate, and expected plays remain diagnostic receipts only, so they cannot double-count the mean. Market prices and target outcomes never enter the projection.

Mean EngineDRIVES × PPDdirect scoring decomposition
MatchupOFF + OPP DEFsymmetric on both sides
Reliability4-GAME PRIORexisting live bridge policy
ProductionUNCHANGEDread-only research
Phase 5H drive matchup candidate has not been run yet.
PHASE 5I · TEMPO ORTHOGONALITY AUDIT

Possession Pace vs Sportsbook Residual

NOT CHECKED

Audits whether a semantically cleaner pace measure adds information beyond the real sportsbook total before we build another totals candidate. It derives strict-prior possession seconds per offensive play from certified D1 team-game truth, pairs each offense with opponent defensive pace faced, applies the existing four-game reliability prior, and compares that diagnostic against actual market residuals. Phase 5I creates no projected total, no bet, no probability, and no production mutation.

Tempo TruthTOP SEC / PLAYstrict-prior D1 only
QuestionBEYOND MARKET?orthogonality audit
Outcome UseEVALUATION ONLYno fitted coefficient
ProductionUNCHANGEDdiagnostic only
Phase 5I tempo orthogonality audit has not been run yet.
PHASE 5B · PERFORMANCE INTELLIGENCE

Winning Signal Fingerprint Reader

NOT CHECKED

Searches only the completed Phase 5A 2025 D1 replay for recurring winner-direction combinations. Weeks 2–12 discover candidate fingerprints; those exact definitions are then checked unchanged on locked Weeks 13–18. It ranks repeatability using sample size, Wilson bounds, weekly stability, and holdout confirmation. This reader remains winner-direction-only and makes no ROI claim; Phase 5E market-price evidence is audited separately, and totals remain excluded here.

Search WindowW2–W12definitions discovered here
ConfirmationW13–W18locked, unchanged
Combinations2–4 WAY17 predeclared signals
Market ClaimNONEwinner-direction evidence
Phase 5B fingerprint reader has not been run yet.
PHASE 5D · RETIRED EVIDENCE

Legacy +16 Overlay Archive

RETIRED

The additive +16 totals overlay is retired and cannot run or create new live snapshots. Its old report and forward record remain read-only evidence. Totals Core v2 must pass the locked 2025 resimulation and a separate historical market-profitability audit before promotion.

Phase 5D totals electrification has not been run yet.

Matchup resimulation

Simulation output will appear here.

Calibration candidate

Dry-run fits compute a candidate but do not write calfit:<season>.

No candidate calculated.
FOOTBALL INTELLIGENCE

Teams · Players · Trenches

Audit exactly what BDL exposes, what the SSOT contains, and what the model can safely use.

BDL capability audit

Run a capability group.
COVERAGE

Intelligence audit

No audit loaded.
TRENCH BRAIN

OL ↔ DL intelligence lane

SHADOW BUILD
OLpressure allowedsack allowedcontinuityrun efficiency
×
DLpressure generatedquick pressuresack conversionrun disruption

Trench features stay shadow-only until 2025 walk-forward testing proves they improve score error without damaging calibration.

LEGACY CALIBRATION SAMPLE

Performance Meter

Error metrics come from finalized KV calgame: records; certification coverage comes from D1. This panel is not the canonical Phase 4J/4L ledger and is not a profitability score.

COHERENCE
Waiting for data.
Legacy Spread MAEn=0
Legacy Total MAEn=0
Legacy ML Briern=0
Final Coverage0 games
Source: waiting for Worker provenance. These figures must not be compared with Phase 4J/4L until the source populations match.
PHASE 5B · WINNING SIGNALS

Most Consistent Winner Fingerprints

READ ONLY

Shows recurring 2025 winner-direction signal combinations that survived a discovery → locked-confirmation split. These are evidence filters for 2026 forward testing, not guarantees or historical ROI claims.

Build or load the Phase 5B report to see the strongest recurring fingerprints.
No winning-signal report loaded.
PHASE 5C · 2026 FORWARD TEST

Live Fingerprint Performance

NO REFIT

Tracks only canonical Phase 5C pregame snapshots. Final scores may grade an existing snapshot, but cannot create or redefine one after kickoff.

No 2026 Phase 5C forward-test record loaded.
PHASE 5D · RETIRED FORWARD TEST

Legacy Overlay Performance Archive

NO NEW SNAPSHOTS

Existing immutable Phase 5D snapshots remain readable for comparison, but the +16 overlay cannot generate new selections. It is not profitability evidence for Totals Core v2.

No legacy Phase 5D totals record loaded.
TREND

Daily error

No performance history loaded.
CALIBRATION

Calibration Control

Observe first. Fit in dry-run. Promotion remains separate from research.

PHASE 5A CANDIDATE

Locked-Holdout Calibration Evidence

NO AUTO PROMOTION

Loads the candidate produced by the autonomous 2025 resim. Platt ML calibration and affine margin calibration are fit only on Weeks 2–12 and judged on untouched Weeks 13–18 with aggregate + weekly-stability gates and reliability bins. This card never writes production calfit.

No Phase 5A calibration candidate loaded.

Current summary

No summary loaded.

Latest fit

No fit loaded.
DECISION LAYER

Picks & Markets

Pure football projection first, sportsbook comparison second.

Prediction Bridge verifies that this week's market events map to D1 games and that every team has a locked 2025 prior-season parity receipt before Brain v8 runs. Replay Completed Games reconstructs already-final Week 1 games with a strict pre-kickoff cutoff. Prediction Forensic defaults to the latest completed game and traces the exact pregame inputs, power prior, component breakdown, and one-at-a-time feature/family ablations without changing the model. Totals remain research-only. Every raw response now gets a mobile-safe COPY RESPONSE control.

PHASE 5C · LIVE FORWARD TEST

Winning Fingerprint Matcher

NOT CHECKED

Applies the exact frozen 2025 REPEATABLE fingerprints to the current 2026 Brain winner direction. The first eligible pregame snapshot for each game becomes the canonical forward-test record; after kickoff it is never backfilled or replaced. No 2026 refit, no totals, and no market ROI claims.

Run MATCH LIVE SLATE to see which Brain picks carry the locked 2025 winning fingerprints.
Phase 5C has not been run yet.
PHASE 5D · LIVE LANE RETIRED

Legacy Totals Snapshot Archive

RETIRED

Uses the frozen 2025 discovery-selected correction plus repeatable residual fingerprints, compares against the current market total, and freezes the first eligible pregame snapshot. Strong labels require at least a 2.5-point corrected edge plus agreeing residual-fingerprint evidence.

Build Phase 5D historical totals intelligence, then snapshot the live slate.
Phase 5D live totals has not been run yet.
Choose a market view.
SINGLE SOURCE OF TRUTH

Data Vault

D1 canonical history · R2 raw receipts · deterministic certification.

Season audit

No audit loaded.
PRE-FLIGHTED AUTOPILOT

Historical intelligence rebuild

NOT CHECKED

One click runs the rebuild preflight first, then starts only if the Worker proves D1, R2, Queue, BDL, schema and historical dependencies are safe. Current-only injuries are intentionally excluded from historical truth.

Historical rebuild preflight has not been run yet.
POINT-IN-TIME EVIDENCE

Historical Predictions

Reconcile legacy evidence, then build leakage-safe rolling pregame snapshots and shadow predictions from certified historical truth.

TRUTH GATE

Prediction-lineage preflight

NOT CHECKED

Requires certified Games, Team Stats, Player Stats and Plays plus the preserved 2025 legacy prediction namespace. This stage does not fit calibration or change model weights.

Prediction-lineage preflight has not been run yet.
GUARDRAILS

What this phase will certify

Legacy prediction → SSOT game matchREQUIRED
Exact duplicate detectionREQUIRED
Pregame vs retrospective timingREQUIRED
D1 final scores authoritativeLOCKED
Calibration promotionBLOCKED
Next stage: leakage-safe rolling feature snapshots → shadow resimulation → walk-forward evaluation. Legacy rows stay evidence-only until those replay receipts exist.
Legacy Rowslineage ledger
Matchedto certified games
Pregame Candidatesevidence only
Training Eligible0until replay proof
LINEAGE AUDIT

Historical prediction truth

No historical prediction lineage built yet.
PHASE 2

Leakage-safe shadow replay

NOT CHECKED

For each certified 2025 game, the Worker builds team features only from games with kickoff times strictly earlier than the target. Week 1/no-history rows are skipped rather than contaminated with future information.

Shadow replay preflight has not been run yet.
FIDELITY CONTRACT

What this replay means

Strictly prior kickoff dataLOCKED
Legacy prediction inputsEXCLUDED
Current injuries / market / calfitEXCLUDED
Core feature parityPARTIAL PROXY
Calibration trainingBLOCKED
Purpose: establish a leakage-safe Brain v8 core baseline now. EPA, defensive success, pressure and red-zone inputs remain clearly labeled proxies until exact time-safe historical feature parity is reconstructed.
Shadow Rowshistorical games
Predictedsufficient prior history
Leakage Violationsmust remain zero
Training Eligible0until parity proof
SHADOW AUDIT

Rolling pregame baseline

No shadow replay built yet.
PHASE 3

Play schema audit

NOT CHECKED

Scans the certified 2025 play-by-play corpus already stored in D1. It inventories canonical columns and raw provider JSON fields, measures field coverage, and classifies Brain inputs without calling the provider or touching model math.

Play schema preflight has not been run yet.
NO FALSE GREEN

Classification contract

Certified play truth onlyLOCKED
Provider calls during auditZERO
EXACT_SOURCEFIELD EXISTS
EXACT_DERIVABLEDEFINITION GATED
Calibration / model mutationBLOCKED
Goal: prove what the historical play corpus can actually support for EPA, success rate, explosive plays, red-zone, sacks and pressure before we build Play Intelligence.
Play Rowscertified corpus
Fields Foundcanonical + raw
Exact / Derivablefeature classes
Training Eligible0still blocked
PLAY SCHEMA AUDIT

Historical field support

No play schema audit built yet.
SOURCE INTEGRITY REPAIR

Complete every historical play cursor

NOT CHECKED

The semantic review exposed a source-completeness defect: the old historical orchestration could move to the next game after page 1 because the game was no longer “missing.” This repair pins each game until BALLDONTLIE returns a null next_cursor, records an immutable completion receipt, recertifies Plays, and automatically reruns the Play Schema Audit on the repaired corpus. R2 10043 / 503 writes now retry with backoff and checkpoint instead of permanently killing the job.

Historical play completion has not been checked yet.
FAIL CLOSED

Source-completeness contract

Same game until cursor exhaustedLOCKED
Per-game completion receiptREQUIRED
Play rows ≥ box offensive playsREQUIRED
Old “one play/game” certificationREJECTED
HPI before strong certificationBLOCKED
One click: cursor repair → strong Plays certification → completeness audit → schema rescan → schema reclassification.
Play Rowscurrent D1
Cursor-Exhausted Gamesof final games
Exactly 100 Rowspage-cap warning
Below Box Floormust reach 0
PHASE 4D

Semantic v1.7 — Gold + Locked Certification

NOT CHECKED

Rebuilds the certified play corpus into immutable Semantic v1.7 receipts without changing Brain-v8 prediction math. v1.7 resolves deterministic nullified-TD, compact scoring-summary, special-teams return, safety, explicit Aborted. and penalty/review precedence cases while preserving genuinely ambiguous QB/fumble rows as ABSTAIN. Automated reconciliation still must pass, then an operator must approve the exact 103-row gold proposal hash and freeze it into a 100% locked regression set before semantic certification can turn green.

Historical Play Intelligence preflight has not been run yet.
NO FALSE GREEN

Certification boundary

Certified D1 plays onlyLOCKED
External/provider callsZERO
Explosive / red-zone / sackSEMANTIC CERTIFIED
EPA / successPHASE 4G
Brain-v8 input mappingPARTIAL CERTIFIED
Calibration trainingBLOCKED
Release gate: Semantic v1.7 is now operator-gold + locked-test certified. Phase 4E mapped every Brain-v8 input and exposed the remaining truth gaps. Phase 4F closed all evidence-backed source truth it could. Phase 4G supplies the certified EPA/success contract. Phase 4H audits true pressure and consolidates every proven historical Brain-v8 input while unproven pressure/injury truth remains fail-closed.
Semantic Rowsplay receipts
Classifiednon-unknown family
Abstainedreview queue
HPI Team Rowscandidate only
SEMANTIC + HPI AUDIT

Candidate historical play intelligence

No Historical Play Intelligence candidate build yet.
CERTIFICATION

Gold proposal → operator approval → locked regression

FAIL CLOSED

The Worker never auto-claims human review. Build the proposal only after the v1.7 pipeline completes. Review the exact hash/count, explicitly approve that immutable proposal, then freeze it into the locked test set. Any later semantic or raw-text drift breaks certification.

No v1.7 gold proposal built yet.
PHASE 4E

Brain v8 Model Input Parity

NOT CHECKED

Build immutable point-in-time receipts for every normalized Brain-v8 input. Certified prior box truth and Semantic v1.7 HPI may become PARITY_DERIVED; proxies, unavailable inputs and unproven historical injury context remain fail-closed and cannot become training truth.

FAIL-CLOSED CONTRACT

Parity classes

Certified source valueEXACT_HISTORICAL
Locked calculation from certified prior truthPARITY_DERIVED
Approximation onlyPROXY_ONLY
No certified field/contractUNAVAILABLE
Historical timing not provenBLOCKED
No fake parity: EPA, true pressure, defensive success and injury context stay blocked until their own point-in-time evidence contracts exist. Brain math is read-only.
Parity Receiptstarget team-games
History Eligibleprior-game context
Leakage Violationsmust remain zero
Full Parity Gatefail closed on gaps
PARITY OUTPUT

Brain input fidelity, blockers and immutable receipt ledger

Semantic v1.7 is certified. Run the Brain v8 model-input parity pre-flight next.
PHASE 4F

Historical Input Truth Closure

NOT CHECKED

Close only the remaining Brain-v8 inputs that can be proven from historical point-in-time evidence. Fresh BDL source-dated injury rows may become PARITY_DERIVED under the existing injury weights. Historical QB hits are measured against opponent dropbacks but stay PROXY_ONLY. EPA and positive-EPA defensive success remain UNAVAILABLE until the expected-points state contract is locked.

TONIGHT PROTECTION

Live 2026 slate has priority

RESEARCH LANE
Production Brain-v8 mathUNCHANGED
Current market / injuries in 4FNOT USED
4F provider callsZERO
One active pipelineSTILL LOCKED
Tonight Daily IngestPRIORITY
Game-day rule: run 4F now while the live slate is idle. If Daily Ingest needs to start before 4F completes, cancel 4F first. Never run competing historical and live season pipelines.
Truth ReceiptsPhase 4F team-games
Injury Resolvedfresh source-dated rows
QB-Hit Proxy Evidencenever true pressure
Remaining Blockersfail closed
PHASE 4F OUTPUT

Historical injury truth, pressure proxy evidence and remaining blockers

Phase 4E is complete. Run the Phase 4F pre-flight; this research lane does not change tonight’s production Brain math.
PHASE 4G · EPA STATE + SUCCESS TRUTH
WALK-FORWARD EPA

Frozen Weekly Expected-Points Contract

NOT CHECKED

Fit each target week’s expected-points state model only from games that kicked off before that week. The model uses down, distance, field position and half-clock state, then reconstructs prior-game offensive EPA, defensive EPA allowed and positive-EPA success allowed. Nothing is promoted unless walk-forward MAE and RMSE both beat the zero-EP baseline.

NO RETROSPECTIVE FIT

Promotion boundary

Semantic v1.7 / Gold / LockedREQUIRED
Training cutoffSTRICT PRIOR WEEK
Next-score labelSAME HALF
Walk-forward MAE + RMSEMUST BEAT ZERO
Current market / injuries / calfitEXCLUDED
Brain v8 mathREAD ONLY
Target closure: `off_epa_play`, `def_epa_play`, and `def_success`. True pressure and unproven historical injury fields remain blocked after Phase 4G.
Weekly Modelsfrozen pre-week fits
EPA Receiptstarget team-games
OOS Playswalk-forward test set
EPA Gatemust beat zero baseline
PHASE 4G OUTPUT

Expected-points model skill, EPA receipts and success-rate promotion gate

Phase 4F is complete. Run Phase 4G pre-flight to build the walk-forward EPA state contract.
PHASE 4H · TRUE PRESSURE + CONSOLIDATED PARITY
NO PROXY PROMOTION

True Pressure Contract + Final Input Overlay

NOT CHECKED

Audit every stored pressure-capable source, then merge Phase 4E parity, Phase 4F truth and Phase 4G certified EPA/success into one immutable Brain-v8 input receipt. QB hits remain a proxy unless a complete pressure/hurry source with a locked denominator exists. Missing 2025 injury truth remains blocked.

SOURCE BOUNDARY

Pressure and injury truth stay explicit

EPA + positive-EPA success4G CERTIFIED SOURCE
BDL defensive QB hitsPROXY ONLY
Advanced passing time-to-throwQB CONTEXT ONLY
True hurries / total pressuresSOURCE REQUIRED
2025 point-in-time injuriesSOURCE REQUIRED
Brain v8 / calibration mathREAD ONLY
Overlay Receiptsconsolidated team-games
True Pressure Gatenever QB-hit false green
Resolved Inputsof 19 Brain inputs
Remaining Blockerssource truth required
PHASE 4H OUTPUT

Pressure-source audit and consolidated Brain-v8 historical parity receipt

Phase 4G is certified. Run Phase 4H pre-flight to audit true pressure and consolidate every proven historical Brain input.
PHASE 4H.1 · LEAKAGE LINEAGE AUDIT + REPAIR
REPAIR LINEAGE, NOT TRUTH

Weekly EPA Cutoff Boundary Audit

NOT CHECKED

Enumerate every consolidated receipt failing the point-in-time gate. Repair only the case where the frozen weekly EPA model trained strictly before its cutoff and that cutoff equals the target game's kickoff. Any unsafe Phase 4E/4F/4G source or cutoff after kickoff remains blocked.

FAIL-CLOSED REPAIR

What 4H.1 is allowed to change

Phase 4E / 4F / 4G source receiptsIMMUTABLE
EPA cutoff < target kickoffSAFE
EPA cutoff = target kickoffSAFE ONLY AS TRAINING EXCLUSION BOUNDARY
EPA cutoff > target kickoffNEVER REPAIR
Feature/classification valuesUNCHANGED
Brain v8 / calibration mathREAD ONLY
Violationscurrent overlay
Safe Boundarycutoff = kickoff
Genuine Unsafemust remain blocked
Expected Signature362 receipts × 18 weeks
PHASE 4H.1 OUTPUT

Exact lineage violation ledger, repair receipt and re-audited point-in-time gate

Phase 4H found 36 consolidated leakage flags. Run 4H.1 pre-flight to prove whether they are the weekly EPA cutoff-equality boundary before any repair is allowed.
PHASE 4I · CERTIFIED 16/19 PARTIAL-PARITY SHADOW REPLAY
LOCKED HISTORICAL INFORMATION SET

Brain v8 Partial-Parity Replay

NOT CHECKED

Replay Brain v8 from the certified 16/19 consolidated historical input overlay. The three fields without trustworthy historical truth are neutralized symmetrically: pressure_rate = 0.30, inj_total = 0, _injury_penalty = 0. No QB-hit proxy, stale injuries, current market, calfit or live data are allowed.

NO FALSE PARITY

Replay science contract

Certified historical inputs16 / 19
Pressure proxyNOT USED
Historical injury backfillNOT USED
Calibration sourceCAL_DEFAULTS LOCKED
Market / current injuries / calfitZERO
Calibration trainingBLOCKED
Baseline: strict walk-forward league prior using only earlier final games. Positive skill deltas mean Brain v8 beat that no-market baseline. This is evidence for the 16/19 information set, not a claim of full production parity.
Predicted GamesWeek 1 skipped by design
Leakagemust equal 0
Spread MAEvs actual margin
Total MAEvs actual total
PHASE 4I OUTPUT

OOS metrics, walk-forward baseline deltas, weekly stability and ML confidence buckets

Phase 4H.1 is leakage-clean. Run Phase 4I pre-flight to lock the 16/19 replay profile before generating any historical prediction.
PHASE 4J · LOCKED OOS ML/SIDE STABILITY + TOTALS PARTIAL-PARITY FORENSIC
LOCK THE GOOD SIGNAL · TRACE THE BAD CHANNEL

ML/Side Stability + Totals Forensic

NOT CHECKED

Freeze Phase 4I exactly as produced. Measure ML/side skill across weeks, early/mid/late windows and confidence buckets, then reconstruct the totals channel from base expected points → play/volume structure → chaos → totals adjustment → CAL_DEFAULTS. No tuning occurs in this phase.

EVIDENCE-ONLY CONTRACT

What 4J can and cannot conclude

Phase 4I predictionsIMMUTABLE
ML/side stabilityLOCKED OOS EVIDENCE
Totals decompositionDETERMINISTIC MIRROR-LOCKED
Pressure / injury gridsSENSITIVITY ONLY
Brain / calibration mutationNONE
Training / promotionBLOCKED
Scientific rule: do not use total_a or total_b to hide an upstream expected-points or feature-scale defect. Locate the earliest biased stage first.
ML Brier Skillpositive = better than baseline
0.20+ ML Accuracylocked confidence bucket
Spread MAE Skillpositive = better
Total Biasforensic target
PHASE 4J OUTPUT

Stability gates, stage attribution, feature-term means and missing-input sensitivity

Phase 4I is frozen. Run Phase 4J pre-flight to prove the 256-row source replay and profile hash before forensic reconstruction.
PHASE 4K.1 · EXACT NONLINEAR SOURCE MIRROR + COMPONENT-SCALE ISOLATION
FIX MIRROR INTEGRITY · KEEP ML/SIDE FROZEN

Exact Source Mirror + EPA/DCR Isolation

NOT CHECKED

Use the immutable Phase 4J forensic rows and preserve their exact nonlinear downstream remainder so the SOURCE_LOCKED control reproduces all 256 totals without loosening tolerance. Then rerun the same EPA/down-conversion research grid. Weeks 2-12 select; Weeks 13-18 validate. ML/side outputs remain untouched.

LOCKED RESEARCH CONTRACT

What 4K.1 is allowed to change

Phase 4I / 4J source rowsIMMUTABLE
ML / spread outputsFROZEN
Source nonlinear remainderLOCKED FROM PHASE 4J
EPA contribution scaleRESEARCH GRID ONLY
DCR reference centerRESEARCH GRID ONLY
W13-W18 validationNEVER USED TO SELECT
Brain / calibration / trainingNO MUTATION
Acceptance: first require 256/256 SOURCE_LOCKED mirror rows, blocked = 0 and unsafe = 0 at the unchanged 1e-7 tolerance. Then evaluate the same discovery-selected candidate on W13-W18. The walk-forward baseline remains the benchmark; no 4K.1 result can promote production by itself.
Discovery Winnerselected W2-W12 only
Validation MAEW13-W18
Validation Biascloser to 0 is better
Beat WF Baseline?validation benchmark
PHASE 4K.1 OUTPUT

Exact source-mirror lock, discovery ranking, validation result, feature-center diagnostics and no-mutation gates

The previous 4K run exposed four nonlinear source-mirror boundary mismatches. Run 4K.1 pre-flight, then rebuild the ledger with the exact locked Phase 4J nonlinear residual. Do not loosen the source-mirror gate.
PHASE 4L · RESIDUAL BASEEXPECTEDPOINTS ATTRIBUTION
LOCK 4K.1 ROOT · ISOLATE THE REMAINDER

Residual Upstream Attribution

NOT CHECKED

Freeze the exact Phase 4K.1 discovery winner, then change one remaining upstream baseExpectedPoints degree of freedom at a time: per-team intercept, one residual term, or the pace multiplier. Weeks 2-12 select; Weeks 13-18 validate. EPA/DCR, ML/side, downstream totals adjustment and CAL_DEFAULTS remain locked.

ONE DEGREE OF FREEDOM

4L research boundary

4K.1 EPA/DCR rootFROZEN
Intercept grid+1 / +2 / +3 / +4 PER TEAM
Residual base termsZERO ONE AT A TIME
Pace multiplierNEUTRAL TEST ONLY
W13-W18VALIDATION ONLY
ML / spread / downstream totalsFROZEN
Training / productionBLOCKED
Goal: explain the residual low-total bias without hiding it in total_a/total_b. A 4L winner is only a locked hypothesis for Phase 4M replication.
Residual Winnerselected W2-W12 only
Validation MAEW13-W18
Validation Biascloser to 0 is better
Beat WF Baseline?validation benchmark
PHASE 4L OUTPUT

Locked root mirror, residual attribution ranking, validation result and no-mutation gates

Phase 4K.1 is clean. Run 4L pre-flight to lock its discovery winner and isolate the remaining upstream expected-points bias without touching ML/side.
PHASE 4M · MULTI-SEASON TOTALS REPLICATION
REQUIRED FOR TOTALS VALIDATION · RESEARCH ONLY

Locked 2025 Candidate → 2024 / 2023 Replication

NOT READY

First rebuild 2024 through clean Phase 4J evidence, then rebuild 2023 through clean Phase 4J evidence. Only then apply the already locked 2025 Phase 4L root + residual specification in Phase 4M, with no recentering or retuning on either target season. This validates replication integrity; it never promotes totals by itself.

Required order: 2024 → 2023 → Phase 4M. Run each historical season sequentially and wait for Operations to finish before starting the next job.
HISTORICAL HANDOFF

What 4M decides

2025 4L candidateHASH LOCKED
2024 / 2023 recenteringFORBIDDEN
Target-season tuningFORBIDDEN
Source Brain + WF baselineBOTH BENCHMARKED
Totals production promotionSEPARATE GATE
Daily ingest / player-data handoffALLOWED AFTER REPLICATION INTEGRITY
Important: 4M can clear the historical architecture for ingestion even if totals remains research-only. Player-props modeling still requires its own player-history/usage truth layer.
Eligible Prior Seasons2024 / 2023
Pooled Candidate MAElocked 2025 spec
Pooled WF Baselinestrict walk-forward
Ingestion Handoffhistorical architecture
PHASE 4M OUTPUT

Prior-season coverage, locked-candidate replication, benchmark deltas and ingestion handoff gate

No prior-season replication ledger. Build 2024 and 2023 through Phase 4J sequentially, then run Phase 4M once without retuning.
PHASE 4N · 2025 HISTORICAL CLOSURE + INGESTION HANDOFF
INGESTION HANDOFF ONLY · TOTALS RESEARCH-ONLY

2025 Historical Foundation Closure

NOT CHECKED

The persisted 2025 Phase 4J, 4K.1 and 4L hashes can establish the Daily Ingest handoff. A ready 4N receipt does not validate or promote totals, and it does not replace the required 2024/2023 Phase 4M replication now in scope. Do not rerun 4N for the totals rebuild.

LANE-SPECIFIC STATUS CONTRACT

What closure means

2025 Phase 4J / 4K.1 / 4LHASH LOCKED
2024 / 2023REBUILD SEQUENTIALLY
Phase 4MRUN AFTER BOTH 4J LEDGERS
ML / side evidenceFROZEN 16/19 SHADOW
TotalsRESEARCH ONLY
Daily IngestINDEPENDENT HANDOFF
Player propsNEEDS PLAYER USAGE TRUTH
Status rule: green ingestion readiness is not green totals evidence. Totals stays amber until a separate production-promotion contract passes.
2025 Foundation4J → 4K.1 → 4L
ML / Side Lanelocked historical evidence
Totals Laneresearch / promotion status
Ingestion HandoffDaily Ingest + player data
PHASE 4N OUTPUT

Durable 2025 closure receipt, evidence hashes, lane status and ingestion handoff

Existing 4N is an ingestion receipt only. Do not rerun it during the 2024 → 2023 → Phase 4M totals sequence.
PHASE 4B DIAGNOSTIC

Reconciliation Microscope

NOT CHECKED

Re-runs the same accounting microscope against Semantic v1.7 using resolved start-of-snap offense instead of raw provider team_id. It remains diagnostic-only and shows whether the evidence-backed semantic repairs reduce signed residuals without forcing box-score agreement.

DIAGNOSTIC ONLY
ACCOUNTING TRUTH

Do not tune by eye

Signed residualsMEASURED
Spike / scramble / kneel profileEXPOSED
Penalty / no-play evidenceEXPOSED
Semantic v1.7 resolverEVIDENCE-BASED
Brain / calibration mutationNONE
Purpose: verify v1.7 deterministic review-queue repairs, gold approval and locked-test stability while preserving the v1.6 ownership/replay lineage. Ambiguous QB/fumble rows remain abstentions; do not lower the 95% gate. Do not lower the 95% gate if residuals remain.
Pass Exactteam-game equality
Completion Exactteam-game equality
Rush Exactteam-game equality
Sack Exactteam-game equality
MICROSCOPE OUTPUT

Residuals, suspect profiles, mismatch rows and raw play evidence

Run the Reconciliation Microscope. No rules will be changed.
RUN CONTROL

Operations

Autonomous jobs, fast-safe checkpoints, atomic Queue claims, race-safe watchdogs, self-healing stalls, continuation counts, errors and cancellation. Auto-refreshes every 5 seconds while a job is active.

JobPresetStatusStepProgressContinuationsUpdated
No jobs loaded.
TRACE

Selected job

Select a job to inspect its checkpoint.
ENGINEERING OBSERVABILITY

Professional Diagnostics

Safe runtime doctors for Worker, D1, Queue, provider capabilities, routes and recent errors. Secret values are never returned.

ONE BUTTON

System Doctor

NOT RUN

Checks bindings, D1 schema, queue health, stalled jobs, provider capability cache, recent errors and historical-rebuild readiness.

Focused doctors

SANITIZED TRACE

Diagnostic response

Run System Doctor or a focused diagnostic.
AUTO-SYNC

Endpoint Library

Generated from /control/manifest. New registered Worker features appear here after deploy without a Pages rebuild.

0 endpoints
Sync the Worker to load endpoints.
UNIVERSAL RUNNER

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