One brain. One truth. One-click pipelines.
The Worker owns the football logic. The UI reads the Worker contract and automatically exposes new capabilities after each deploy.
System gates
Autonomous pipeline
Incremental Daily Ingest
Refresh only what changed. Games stay live; certified final stats, advanced stats, rosters and injuries reuse fresh D1 truth until their fingerprint or TTL requires a provider call.
Freshness-aware pipeline
Daily phases
Reuse vs refresh
Full freshness preflight
No preflight loaded.
Current run
Matchup Center
One game, one coherent football packet. All numbers come from the Worker; the browser does not recalculate the model.
Truth gates
Reliability
Away offense ↔ Home defense
Home offense ↔ Away defense
OL ↔ DL matchup
No trench packet loaded.
Injuries + weather
Away injuries
Home injuries
Market comparison
Player projection cache
Full Worker matchup packet / provenance
No matchup packet loaded.
Resimulation Station
Test matchup behavior and calibration candidates without replacing the engine’s core model.
2025 Full-Season Totals Resimulation
One click runs the corrected totals math chronologically from strict pre-kickoff receipts. DCR uses its true conversion-rate scale, EPA and every additive feature are centered on that week’s leakage-safe pregame population, and the scoring level uses only prior completed games with shrinkage. Legacy moneyline/spread outputs remain unchanged. The old +16 overlay is excluded, and promotion remains blocked until both locked accuracy and historical market-profitability evidence pass.
Phase 5A preflight has not been run yet.
Historical Core Markets KV + Clean Totals Audit
Preflight checks immutable KV before any provider action. When all snapshots are cached, this lane rebuilds separate v3 D1 receipts and the audit with zero Odds API calls or credits; only genuinely missing snapshots can reach the historical provider. Requests remain locked to moneyline (h2h), spread and total at T−6h and T−5m. The clean audit excludes same-week outcomes, gives each bookmaker one consensus-line vote, settles only an actual bookmaker price, and explains every uncovered predicted game. Market data never enters totals math, and no result promotes automatically.
Phase 5E historical market preflight has not been run yet.
Component Attribution + Signal Qualification
Runs a read-only truth test over the immutable Phase 5A replay and clean Phase 5E market audit. It measures model-vs-market accuracy, edge discrimination, probability calibration, cold-start bets, and each totals stage. It makes zero provider calls, spends zero Odds API credits, writes nothing, and cannot promote totals.
Phase 5F signal truth has not been run yet.
De-duplicated Projection + Probability Repair
Evaluates one predeclared read-only totals candidate built directly from the Phase 5F diagnosis. Correlated EPA/YPP/PPD/DCR/red-zone inputs vote through one robust efficiency block instead of stacking across multiple stages; pace owns one volume adjustment; penalties own one discipline term. The old chaos mean shift, secondary total adjustment, duplicate DCR/pace paths, and legacy total calibration are excluded. Candidate probability comes from strictly earlier-week candidate residuals, and zero-history games are projected but cannot become bets. 2025 outcomes are evaluation-only and never fit candidate coefficients or thresholds.
Phase 5G bounded totals candidate has not been run yet.
Strict-Prior Scoring Identity Model
Rebuilds the totals mean from the football scoring identity: expected drives × matchup points per drive. Each offense is paired symmetrically with the opponent defense using certified D1 team-game history from strictly earlier weeks. The existing four-game live-bridge reliability budget shrinks small samples toward the weekly league center. YPP, third-down rate, and expected plays remain diagnostic receipts only, so they cannot double-count the mean. Market prices and target outcomes never enter the projection.
Phase 5H drive matchup candidate has not been run yet.
Possession Pace vs Sportsbook Residual
Audits whether a semantically cleaner pace measure adds information beyond the real sportsbook total before we build another totals candidate. It derives strict-prior possession seconds per offensive play from certified D1 team-game truth, pairs each offense with opponent defensive pace faced, applies the existing four-game reliability prior, and compares that diagnostic against actual market residuals. Phase 5I creates no projected total, no bet, no probability, and no production mutation.
Phase 5I tempo orthogonality audit has not been run yet.
Pregame Feature Families vs Sportsbook Residual
Tests semantically distinct strict-prior football families one at a time before another totals candidate is allowed. The audit measures tempo, EPA matchup, explosives, red-zone scoring, turnovers, sacks, penalties, pass tendency, and recent scoring form against the real sportsbook residual and again after controlling for the sportsbook signal. 2025 outcomes are evaluation-only: no coefficient, threshold, probability, bet, or ROI bucket is fit here.
Phase 5J orthogonal football signal audit has not been run yet.
Winning Signal Fingerprint Reader
Searches only the completed Phase 5A 2025 D1 replay for recurring winner-direction combinations. Weeks 2–12 discover candidate fingerprints; those exact definitions are then checked unchanged on locked Weeks 13–18. It ranks repeatability using sample size, Wilson bounds, weekly stability, and holdout confirmation. This reader remains winner-direction-only and makes no ROI claim; Phase 5E market-price evidence is audited separately, and totals remain excluded here.
Phase 5B fingerprint reader has not been run yet.
Legacy +16 Overlay Archive
The additive +16 totals overlay is retired and cannot run or create new live snapshots. Its old report and forward record remain read-only evidence. Totals Core v2 must pass the locked 2025 resimulation and a separate historical market-profitability audit before promotion.
Phase 5D totals electrification has not been run yet.
Matchup resimulation
Calibration candidate
Dry-run fits compute a candidate but do not write calfit:<season>.
Teams · Players · Trenches
Audit exactly what BDL exposes, what the SSOT contains, and what the model can safely use.
BDL capability audit
Intelligence audit
OL ↔ DL intelligence lane
Trench features stay shadow-only until 2025 walk-forward testing proves they improve score error without damaging calibration.
Performance Meter
Error metrics come from finalized KV calgame: records; certification coverage comes from D1. This panel is not the canonical Phase 4J/4L ledger and is not a profitability score.
Most Consistent Winner Fingerprints
Shows recurring 2025 winner-direction signal combinations that survived a discovery → locked-confirmation split. These are evidence filters for 2026 forward testing, not guarantees or historical ROI claims.
No winning-signal report loaded.
Live Fingerprint Performance
Tracks only canonical Phase 5C pregame snapshots. Final scores may grade an existing snapshot, but cannot create or redefine one after kickoff.
No 2026 Phase 5C forward-test record loaded.
Legacy Overlay Performance Archive
Existing immutable Phase 5D snapshots remain readable for comparison, but the +16 overlay cannot generate new selections. It is not profitability evidence for Totals Core v2.
No legacy Phase 5D totals record loaded.
Daily error
Calibration Control
Observe first. Fit in dry-run. Promotion remains separate from research.
Locked-Holdout Calibration Evidence
Loads the candidate produced by the autonomous 2025 resim. Platt ML calibration and affine margin calibration are fit only on Weeks 2–12 and judged on untouched Weeks 13–18 with aggregate + weekly-stability gates and reliability bins. This card never writes production calfit.
No Phase 5A calibration candidate loaded.
Current summary
Latest fit
Picks & Markets
Pure football projection first, sportsbook comparison second.
Prediction Bridge verifies that this week's market events map to D1 games and that every team has a locked 2025 prior-season parity receipt before Brain v8 runs. Replay Completed Games reconstructs already-final Week 1 games with a strict pre-kickoff cutoff. Prediction Forensic defaults to the latest completed game and traces the exact pregame inputs, power prior, component breakdown, and one-at-a-time feature/family ablations without changing the model. Totals remain research-only. Every raw response now gets a mobile-safe COPY RESPONSE control.
Winning Fingerprint Matcher
Applies the exact frozen 2025 REPEATABLE fingerprints to the current 2026 Brain winner direction. The first eligible pregame snapshot for each game becomes the canonical forward-test record; after kickoff it is never backfilled or replaced. No 2026 refit, no totals, and no market ROI claims.
Phase 5C has not been run yet.
Legacy Totals Snapshot Archive
Uses the frozen 2025 discovery-selected correction plus repeatable residual fingerprints, compares against the current market total, and freezes the first eligible pregame snapshot. Strong labels require at least a 2.5-point corrected edge plus agreeing residual-fingerprint evidence.
Phase 5D live totals has not been run yet.
Data Vault
D1 canonical history · R2 raw receipts · deterministic certification.
Season audit
Historical intelligence rebuild
One click runs the rebuild preflight first, then starts only if the Worker proves D1, R2, Queue, BDL, schema and historical dependencies are safe. Current-only injuries are intentionally excluded from historical truth.
Historical rebuild preflight has not been run yet.
Historical Predictions
Reconcile legacy evidence, then build leakage-safe rolling pregame snapshots and shadow predictions from certified historical truth.
Prediction-lineage preflight
Requires certified Games, Team Stats, Player Stats and Plays plus the preserved 2025 legacy prediction namespace. This stage does not fit calibration or change model weights.
Prediction-lineage preflight has not been run yet.
What this phase will certify
Historical prediction truth
No historical prediction lineage built yet.
Leakage-safe shadow replay
For each certified 2025 game, the Worker builds team features only from games with kickoff times strictly earlier than the target. Week 1/no-history rows are skipped rather than contaminated with future information.
Shadow replay preflight has not been run yet.
What this replay means
Rolling pregame baseline
No shadow replay built yet.
Play schema audit
Scans the certified 2025 play-by-play corpus already stored in D1. It inventories canonical columns and raw provider JSON fields, measures field coverage, and classifies Brain inputs without calling the provider or touching model math.
Play schema preflight has not been run yet.
Classification contract
Historical field support
No play schema audit built yet.
Complete every historical play cursor
The semantic review exposed a source-completeness defect: the old historical orchestration could move to the next game after page 1 because the game was no longer “missing.” This repair pins each game until BALLDONTLIE returns a null next_cursor, records an immutable completion receipt, recertifies Plays, and automatically reruns the Play Schema Audit on the repaired corpus. R2 10043 / 503 writes now retry with backoff and checkpoint instead of permanently killing the job.
Historical play completion has not been checked yet.
Source-completeness contract
Semantic v1.7 — Gold + Locked Certification
Rebuilds the certified play corpus into immutable Semantic v1.7 receipts without changing Brain-v8 prediction math. v1.7 resolves deterministic nullified-TD, compact scoring-summary, special-teams return, safety, explicit Aborted. and penalty/review precedence cases while preserving genuinely ambiguous QB/fumble rows as ABSTAIN. Automated reconciliation still must pass, then an operator must approve the exact 103-row gold proposal hash and freeze it into a 100% locked regression set before semantic certification can turn green.
Historical Play Intelligence preflight has not been run yet.
Certification boundary
Candidate historical play intelligence
No Historical Play Intelligence candidate build yet.
Gold proposal → operator approval → locked regression
The Worker never auto-claims human review. Build the proposal only after the v1.7 pipeline completes. Review the exact hash/count, explicitly approve that immutable proposal, then freeze it into the locked test set. Any later semantic or raw-text drift breaks certification.
No v1.7 gold proposal built yet.
Brain v8 Model Input Parity
Build immutable point-in-time receipts for every normalized Brain-v8 input. Certified prior box truth and Semantic v1.7 HPI may become PARITY_DERIVED; proxies, unavailable inputs and unproven historical injury context remain fail-closed and cannot become training truth.
Parity classes
Brain input fidelity, blockers and immutable receipt ledger
Semantic v1.7 is certified. Run the Brain v8 model-input parity pre-flight next.
Historical Input Truth Closure
Close only the remaining Brain-v8 inputs that can be proven from historical point-in-time evidence. Fresh BDL source-dated injury rows may become PARITY_DERIVED under the existing injury weights. Historical QB hits are measured against opponent dropbacks but stay PROXY_ONLY. EPA and positive-EPA defensive success remain UNAVAILABLE until the expected-points state contract is locked.
Live 2026 slate has priority
Historical injury truth, pressure proxy evidence and remaining blockers
Phase 4E is complete. Run the Phase 4F pre-flight; this research lane does not change tonight’s production Brain math.
Frozen Weekly Expected-Points Contract
Fit each target week’s expected-points state model only from games that kicked off before that week. The model uses down, distance, field position and half-clock state, then reconstructs prior-game offensive EPA, defensive EPA allowed and positive-EPA success allowed. Nothing is promoted unless walk-forward MAE and RMSE both beat the zero-EP baseline.
Promotion boundary
Expected-points model skill, EPA receipts and success-rate promotion gate
Phase 4F is complete. Run Phase 4G pre-flight to build the walk-forward EPA state contract.
True Pressure Contract + Final Input Overlay
Audit every stored pressure-capable source, then merge Phase 4E parity, Phase 4F truth and Phase 4G certified EPA/success into one immutable Brain-v8 input receipt. QB hits remain a proxy unless a complete pressure/hurry source with a locked denominator exists. Missing 2025 injury truth remains blocked.
Pressure and injury truth stay explicit
Pressure-source audit and consolidated Brain-v8 historical parity receipt
Phase 4G is certified. Run Phase 4H pre-flight to audit true pressure and consolidate every proven historical Brain input.
Weekly EPA Cutoff Boundary Audit
Enumerate every consolidated receipt failing the point-in-time gate. Repair only the case where the frozen weekly EPA model trained strictly before its cutoff and that cutoff equals the target game's kickoff. Any unsafe Phase 4E/4F/4G source or cutoff after kickoff remains blocked.
What 4H.1 is allowed to change
Exact lineage violation ledger, repair receipt and re-audited point-in-time gate
Phase 4H found 36 consolidated leakage flags. Run 4H.1 pre-flight to prove whether they are the weekly EPA cutoff-equality boundary before any repair is allowed.
Brain v8 Partial-Parity Replay
Replay Brain v8 from the certified 16/19 consolidated historical input overlay. The three fields without trustworthy historical truth are neutralized symmetrically: pressure_rate = 0.30, inj_total = 0, _injury_penalty = 0. No QB-hit proxy, stale injuries, current market, calfit or live data are allowed.
Replay science contract
OOS metrics, walk-forward baseline deltas, weekly stability and ML confidence buckets
Phase 4H.1 is leakage-clean. Run Phase 4I pre-flight to lock the 16/19 replay profile before generating any historical prediction.
ML/Side Stability + Totals Forensic
Freeze Phase 4I exactly as produced. Measure ML/side skill across weeks, early/mid/late windows and confidence buckets, then reconstruct the totals channel from base expected points → play/volume structure → chaos → totals adjustment → CAL_DEFAULTS. No tuning occurs in this phase.
What 4J can and cannot conclude
total_a or total_b to hide an upstream expected-points or feature-scale defect. Locate the earliest biased stage first.Stability gates, stage attribution, feature-term means and missing-input sensitivity
Phase 4I is frozen. Run Phase 4J pre-flight to prove the 256-row source replay and profile hash before forensic reconstruction.
Exact Source Mirror + EPA/DCR Isolation
Use the immutable Phase 4J forensic rows and preserve their exact nonlinear downstream remainder so the SOURCE_LOCKED control reproduces all 256 totals without loosening tolerance. Then rerun the same EPA/down-conversion research grid. Weeks 2-12 select; Weeks 13-18 validate. ML/side outputs remain untouched.
What 4K.1 is allowed to change
Exact source-mirror lock, discovery ranking, validation result, feature-center diagnostics and no-mutation gates
The previous 4K run exposed four nonlinear source-mirror boundary mismatches. Run 4K.1 pre-flight, then rebuild the ledger with the exact locked Phase 4J nonlinear residual. Do not loosen the source-mirror gate.
Residual Upstream Attribution
Freeze the exact Phase 4K.1 discovery winner, then change one remaining upstream baseExpectedPoints degree of freedom at a time: per-team intercept, one residual term, or the pace multiplier. Weeks 2-12 select; Weeks 13-18 validate. EPA/DCR, ML/side, downstream totals adjustment and CAL_DEFAULTS remain locked.
4L research boundary
Locked root mirror, residual attribution ranking, validation result and no-mutation gates
Phase 4K.1 is clean. Run 4L pre-flight to lock its discovery winner and isolate the remaining upstream expected-points bias without touching ML/side.
Locked 2025 Candidate → 2024 / 2023 Replication
First rebuild 2024 through clean Phase 4J evidence, then rebuild 2023 through clean Phase 4J evidence. Only then apply the already locked 2025 Phase 4L root + residual specification in Phase 4M, with no recentering or retuning on either target season. This validates replication integrity; it never promotes totals by itself.
What 4M decides
Prior-season coverage, locked-candidate replication, benchmark deltas and ingestion handoff gate
No prior-season replication ledger. Build 2024 and 2023 through Phase 4J sequentially, then run Phase 4M once without retuning.
2025 Historical Foundation Closure
The persisted 2025 Phase 4J, 4K.1 and 4L hashes can establish the Daily Ingest handoff. A ready 4N receipt does not validate or promote totals, and it does not replace the required 2024/2023 Phase 4M replication now in scope. Do not rerun 4N for the totals rebuild.
What closure means
Durable 2025 closure receipt, evidence hashes, lane status and ingestion handoff
Existing 4N is an ingestion receipt only. Do not rerun it during the 2024 → 2023 → Phase 4M totals sequence.
Reconciliation Microscope
Re-runs the same accounting microscope against Semantic v1.7 using resolved start-of-snap offense instead of raw provider team_id. It remains diagnostic-only and shows whether the evidence-backed semantic repairs reduce signed residuals without forcing box-score agreement.
Do not tune by eye
Residuals, suspect profiles, mismatch rows and raw play evidence
Run the Reconciliation Microscope. No rules will be changed.
Operations
Autonomous jobs, fast-safe checkpoints, atomic Queue claims, race-safe watchdogs, self-healing stalls, continuation counts, errors and cancellation. Auto-refreshes every 5 seconds while a job is active.
| Job | Preset | Status | Step | Progress | Continuations | Updated | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Selected job
Select a job to inspect its checkpoint.
Professional Diagnostics
Safe runtime doctors for Worker, D1, Queue, provider capabilities, routes and recent errors. Secret values are never returned.
System Doctor
Checks bindings, D1 schema, queue health, stalled jobs, provider capability cache, recent errors and historical-rebuild readiness.
Focused doctors
Diagnostic response
Run System Doctor or a focused diagnostic.
Endpoint Library
Generated from /control/manifest. New registered Worker features appear here after deploy without a Pages rebuild.
Select an endpoint
No endpoint run yet.